Keynes sobre Versailles

"The death toll from WWI mounted toward ten million, Keynes became angrier and angrier at this civilization-breaking catastrophe, and angrier and angrier at the politicians who could see no way forward other than mixing more blood with the mud of Paaschendale.

At the Versailles peace conference the new democratic German government was treated as a foe rather than a potential ally, and the object became to extract as much in plunder and reparations from Germany as possible. (...) So Keynes exploded with a book called "The Economic Consequences of the Peace". It condemned Versailles. It prophesied doom if the treaty were carried out:

"If we aim deliberately at the impoverishment of Central Europe, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can then delay for long that final civil war between the forces of reaction and the despairing convulsions of revolution, before which the horrors of the late German war will fade into nothing, and which will destroy... the civilization and progress of our generation..." (HB, page 391). " J. Bradford DeLong

Outra coisa certa de Keynes mencionada neste texto (outras erradas porque dão a solução keynesiana como válida):

"He tried to prevent Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925 at an overvalued exchange rate, for by overvaluing the exchange rate Britain's Treasury Minister, Winston Churchill, was willing "... the deliberate intensification of unemployment.""

Este ponto foi comentado por Murray N Rothbard mais tarde (no seu livro "American Great Depression"). Foi Churchill que pretendeu deflacionar a "libra" evocando (nos seus habituais excessos pela honra do Império) ser seu dever fazer recuperar o valor da Libra (versus Ouro) aos tempos pré-WWI.

[Winston's most famous act was to return Britain to the gold standard at the unrealistic pre-war parity, thus severely damaging the export trade and ruining the good name of gold, as was pointed out by Murray N. Rothbard. Hardly anyone today would disagree with the judgment of A.J.P. Taylor: Churchill "did not grasp the economic arguments one way or the other. What determined him was again a devotion to British greatness. The pound would once more 'look the dollar in the face'; the days of Queen Victoria would be restored." Rethinking Churchill, Part 2 by Ralph Raico]

Mas tal como é errado inflaccionar é errado deflaccionar. A cada momento, a quantidade de notas versus ouro (não esquecer que se estava ainda nos bons velhos tempos de padrão ouro - algo deturpado já, mas ainda) num dado momento deve ser dado como adquirido, um novo valor ou rácio de equilibrio atingido ,o importante é não inflaccionar mais.

Entre outras coisas (como a criação do FED em 1913), este foi um dos passos para a Grande Depressão [Ou seja, Churchill está directamente- "intended" umas "unintended" outras - conectado aos piores acontecimentos da história da civilização].

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