Paving the Way to War with Iran

Via AnWarBlog: Israel’s war on Lebanon is a warm-up for the U.S. war on Iran.

That is the message of Seymour Hersh’s latest superb article in the New Yorker. Hersh reveals that the Bush administration was “closely involved” in planning Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. A former senior intelligence official informed Hersh that, beginning this Spring, “planners from the U.S. Air Force—under pressure from the White House to develop a war plan for a decisive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities—began consulting with their counterparts in the Israeli Air Force.”

Hersh notes:The surprising strength of Hezbollah’s resistance, and its continuing ability to fire rockets into northern Israel in the face of the constant Israeli bombing, the Middle East expert told me, “is a massive setback for those in the White House who want to use force in Iran. And those who argue that the bombing will create internal dissent and revolt in Iran are also set back.”

Israel is following its own agenda. But a Pentagon consultant informed Hersh that the Bush White House “has been agitating for some time to find a reason for a preëmptive blow against Hezbollah.” Hezbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers last month provided the pretext for a massive bombing campaign than had been planned long before.

The Bush team is chomping at the bit to use the “lessons” from Israel’s war for its own on Iran. A former intelligence officer told Hersh: “We told Israel, ‘Look, if you guys have to go, we’re behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later—the longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office.’” The Bush team apparently believes that they are entitled to create a few more catastrophes before Bush’s time runs out.

Hersh highlights the hare brained notion underlying the Israeli bombing campaign: “Israel believed that, by targeting Lebanon’s infrastructure, including highways, fuel depots, and even the civilian runways at the main Beirut airport, it could persuade Lebanon’s large Christian and Sunni populations to turn against Hezbollah, according to the former senior intelligence official.”

This has backfired massively. And yet the Bush administration appears to still believe that a U.S. bombing campaign in Iran would turn the Iranian people against the Iranian government.

There is no evidence that Bush or Cheney have yet recognized any drawbacks, political or otherwise, from sending Americans off to die for damnfool ideas."
Pois é, parece que as reservas de petroleo e gas natural do Mar Cáspio ainda vão provocar mais chacinas.
De um artigo que li, quando ainda não estava decidido qual o encaminhamento desse petroleo:

"The probable oil reserve, if it ultimately proves to be true, is even more staggering: some 163 billion cubic meters. This is equivalent to 1.4% of total Middle Eastern oil reserves. Probable gas reserves are estimated at 328 trillion cubic feet most of which lie in the landlocked Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and so transportation is a serious obstacle to their exports. The figures given in Table 2 indicate that presently the region provides 10% of world exports against 40% from OPEC countries. Once the means of transfer of the region’s oil and gas are put in place – i.e. pipelines transferring oil and gas to international waters – the region shall be able to meet 50% of world demand. This will make the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, together with the surrounding regions, of unique interest to the world. Several alternatives are being considered for the solution to the problem of transportation. In the present circumstances experts have arrived at five possible alternatives: five different routes for oil and gas transfer pipelines, some of which have been approved by contractors and investors and some are still being considered."
E, entretanto foi inaugurado o pipe-line Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) ou seja o Irão tem de ser afastado.
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